Dear Graduating Senior:

I am begging your pardon for a somber reflection amidst the joy of accomplishment—not to be a wet rag on the festivities of high school graduation, but a bright light on the realities of post-secondary education.

If your GPA is a 3.5 or better, your ACT or SAT score is at the 70th percentile (placing you in the top 30% of current test takers), and you enter the University this year, about 59% of students with similar qualifications will graduate in six years. What is surprising about this number is that it’s not closer to 85 or 90%. However, college is tough. That is what you pay for.

On the other hand, if you’re going to a university with a more typical 2.8 GPA and are at the 45th percentile on the ACT or SAT, the likelihood of finishing in six years drops to well below 50%. These are not great odds. Not like the odds that you carried to high school when graduation was nearly guaranteed.

It shouldn’t surprise you that if you are well-prepared for college study—a good GPA, ACT/SAT score, and class rank in the top 50%—you are more likely to succeed, whether on borrowed funds or your dime. But, access does not equal success.

Nearly two out of three students on the way to a baccalaureate degree borrow money. This is troubling. While the high school experience appears to be free, unless of course you pay taxes, the university experience is not.  Additionally, the dropout rate for those who take loans is nearly 23%. Imagine taking out a car note and never being able to drive it, or buying a house that you can never eat or sleep in.

If you haven’t posted a good academic performance in high school, don’t believe everything a university, its leadership, advertisements, or admissions officers say—those who co-sign your promissory note by accepting you, but have no responsibility for its payment obligation.

They need paying students.

Stoking a deceitful dream on life support—an under-appreciated, over-financed, media-hyped charade—is the real deception, and the weight falls on your back, not theirs.

Look carefully at the costs and benefits of university education. University officials may not tell you the truth; enrollments could drop. Bankers will not tell you the truth; interest income will fall off. Elected officials will not tell you the truth; elections will be lost. Talk to your family, pastors and teachers for counsel. And, listen carefully to those truly concerned for your well-being.

If you choose to attend your “second-choice” university, you may be lulled into thinking that your chances for graduation will improve significantly. Not true. High-quality faculty at good mid-major institutions and teachers colleges demand energy, interest, intellectual acuity and classroom performance. If you haven’t exhibited these in high school, the likelihood that you will spontaneously develop them amid the distractions of university life is near nil.

Maybe you can find a low-stress major and get through on little work. You probably won’t find a job—remember half don’t. Econ 101 tells it like it is—YGWYPF—but in reality if you are borrowing, you didn’t pay for it. Yet.

Unenlightened? Call me a caveman. Cruel? I think of it as honest.

Here is the substance of my advice as you graduate.

One: If you have to borrow money to enter a university straight away, don’t. Go to a community college. Pick rigorous courses that you know will transfer and get them at an 80% discount of the cost of state university prices.  Don’t borrow a dime.

If you need a boost to finish after demonstrating ability at a community college, borrow sparingly in the last two years, but never in the first two.  Never.

Two: If your life circumstance requires you to work and study simultaneously, do it. There is no law of the universe that says a college education must take four years. If it takes more, and you can do it for cash, do it. Don’t borrow money.

Three: Consider carefully with your family and counselors you trust the dollar value of your career path choice. Find a way to graduate from college in a chosen career option with little or no debt.

Four: If you walk to class on expensive Nikes or checking an Apple watch to see if you’re late, you are acting foolishly. Sorry for insensitive straightforwardness. When your friends head to Acapulco on spring break, don’t go. Go do something noble to create resources. Work, or study. But don’t spend or export borrowed money.

Study hard, work diligently, and challenge yourself intellectually. Show this to someone you respect and ask if this seems honest or if I am just being a wet rag.



Originally released May 14, 2012 but worth a second look.

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