University Closures in 2025

Eighth in a series on rural universities.

What follows is not intended to be a gloom and doom forecast. Rather, it is an honest analysis of what smaller, often rural, regional universities will face as the reality for those who choose to do business as usual. It will not work. It will not be the way at West Texas A&M University.

According to The Economist, birth rates in the United States and in developed nations worldwide are dropping like a rock. Forbes claims that college readiness in the United States is on the wane.  Too many universities that are not flagships or elite private institutions insist on behaving as if they were.  Institutional resistance to change is deeply embedded, according to Inside Higher Ed. The opportunity to serve local audiences first by providing access to a quality learning experience to those who would otherwise be denied is sacrificed on the altar of internationalism rather than the responsive powerhouse of regionalism. As more extensive, name-brand public and private universities work harder to grow their populations, many smaller public and private rural institutions struggle to make payroll: the tip of an iceberg.

When a university in a small town closes, the economic impact is significant. Often, they are one of the major employers in a rural community, providing jobs not just to faculty and staff but also to the related services that sustain a university. Closures will lead to job losses and reduce spending power in town. Local businesses, restaurants, bars, bookstores, and housing rentals depend heavily on students and university staff. These places of business that serve University populations will be negatively affected if a university is closed. Ensuing population declines lead to a decrease in the community’s residents affecting local school services and community dynamics driven by lost tax revenue. Infrastructure and services supported locally through funding and partnerships will be diminished. Closure will lead to decreased property values with fewer people and less demand. Every homeowner and landlord will feel the sting. While each community and university has a different relationship, West Texas A&M University is privileged to work in four immediate communities, Canyon and Amarillo, and Potter and Randall counties, all strong partners in university life.  A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper suggests that the coming “demographic cliff” will reduce student enrollment between 2025 and 2029 to the extent that nearly 100 colleges might end up closing. The impact could cast a long shadow on 100,000 students and almost 21,000 staff.  A chilling example is Notre Dame College in Ohio, which closed leaving significant tax revenue loss and abandoned campus buildings with challenges for all.

Smaller universities, with their important purpose, and seeming armor of the state, may cause leaders and communities to believe they are immune to this eventuality. Instead, they are immune from good sense in the cold, harsh reality of the changing environment in higher education unlike any ever seen in US history.

I have addressed these phenomena in the past. Decreasing birthrates, increasing cost, cynicism regarding the value of the University experience, and a press that treats all universities like those seen on the 24-hour news cycle appear to promote social forces inconsistent with the rural values that sustain the university in its geographic context.  Effective rural institutions can appreciate the ideas and values of the people served by the institutions.  Too frequently institutions are seen to desire a value-free environment, disheartening and an impossibility.  Too many university leaders and faculty expect students to check their values at the campus gate—another mindless impossibility.

The Hechinger Report catalogs losses to the community that go beyond dollars and cents. The cultural and intellectual engagement when lost through university closure diminishes the town’s attractiveness to residents and potential new businesses alike. These social, cultural and intellectual forces help create a sense of community in a rural setting. Too often, “Harvard envy” or “flagship envy,” leads smaller rural institutions to neglect workforce development for rural businesses and critical community needs. These concerns present themselves at places like Motlow State Community College on the outskirts of Fayetteville, Tennessee. The forces that influence four-year colleges also impact community colleges. Intentional and thoughtful responses to local needs will help address these concerns.

Increasingly, the colleges that close are not the for-profit colleges, or private residential colleges that were victims of closure in the early part of the 21st century. Instead, more frequently, smaller public institutions will close. The insulation of big-dollar research and service programs at major flagship universities is not available to many smaller rural institutions, especially when they stand alone rather than as members of a university system. University Business, a leading source of insight for university administration, predicts that more private colleges will close. The sticker price, the transition to responsive and responsible public universities, and the growing interest of students in trade schools and vocational programs all require smaller, rural institutions of every stripe, to be mindful of and responsive to the people, the regions, and the students they serve.  This is the “public” in a public university.

This is our guiding principle at West Texas A&M University. It will remain so even as many in and out of the academy are stigmatized by “Harvard envy.” (Remember the flagship admissions scandals of 2019.) It is not the way of the Buffalo.

Walter V. Wendler, President of West Texas A&M University. His weekly columns, with hyperlinks, are available at https://walterwendler.com/.